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In less than a month, development goals and government priorities for the year will be announced at the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature. But those who want an early peek at what plans the world's No. 2 economy has for 2022 have another place to look: regional legislatures' annual sessions. Every one of the 31 provincial-level governments on the Chinese mainland have announced their growth targets and policy goals for the new year when delivering their annual work reports to local legislatures. Pressured by shrinking domestic demand, supply chain disruptions and a souring economic outlook, the majority set lower goals for 2022 than in the year gone by. Nearly half expect their GDP to grow around or lower than 6% this year, while almost all had aimed to grow by more than 6% in 2021. Local GDP growth targets give observers a hint as to the national growth target that will be announced at the NPC's annual session in early March, experts said. The common themes in how local governments plan to stabilize economic growth also provide clues as to where the nation's economy is headed in 2022. Their annual work reports point out economic challenges including an unstable recovery from the impact of Covid-19 and clogged supply chains. Many regions say they plan to stabilize growth through investing in infrastructure, boosting consumption and deepening reforms — including the pursuit of "common prosperity." They've also vowed to develop clean energy and curb the "blind development" of energy-intensive projects, as they juggle the need to grow with the nation's carbon neutrality drive. Almost all provincial-level governments lowered their GDP growth targets this year. Some of China's more developed regions, such as Guangdong province and Beijing, aim to grow their GDP by above 5% or around 5.5% this year. The more modest targets are partly because the 2021 growth rates, both projected and achieved, skewed higher because of the low bases in 2020, when the direct impact of Covid-19 in China was at its peak. These local goals indicate that the national GDP growth target is also likely to be lower than last year's "above 6%," and could be 5% or 5.5%, multiple economists said. Shanghai and Beijing's growth targets for 2022 are around 5.5% and above 5%, respectively, and in the past, the targets of these two regions were very close to the national goal, Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomist of Everbright Securities Co. Ltd., wrote in an article in January. China may set a national growth target of between 5% and 5.5% this year, and actual growth is likely to fall in that range, analysts with Yuekai Securities Co. Ltd. wrote in a February report. A relatively high target of 5.5% could boost market confidence, but any failure to make it would impact market expectations, they said. As China's once breakneck growth slows, stabilizing the economy has become national policymakers' top priority. Based on their annual work reports, local governments are following suit, vowing to increase investment, support businesses and boost consumption. Of the around 20 provincial-level regions that have announced growth targets for fixed-asset investment, which includes government-driven infrastructure spending, almost all set targets higher than their GDP growth targets, according to a Caixin analysis. Liaoning, whose fixed-asset investment grew 2.6% in 2021, said it will "do everything possible to expand effective investment." Acting Governor Li Lecheng announced last month that Liaoning aims to grow its GDP by more than 5.5% and increase fixed-asset investment by around 10% this year. The rustbelt northeastern province wants to "promote stable improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth in economic quantity" through quality projects, including nuclear power plants, high-speed railways and airport projects. The Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, one of China's less-developed regions, also plans to grow its fixed-asset investment by 10% in 2022, a target higher than its GDP growth target of "above 6.5%." Besides expanding investment, local governments also emphasized their plans to support businesses. Some noted that Covid-19 flare-ups and rising raw material costs had strained profits, especially for micro, small and midsize enterprises (MSMEs). Zhejiang province, which has a particularly hardy crop of smaller companies, said it will strive to cut 300 billion yuan ($47 billion) in taxes and fees for enterprises and curb speculation on bulk commodities to alleviate cost pressure. The East China economic powerhouse also vowed to expand credit availability to market entities and lower their financing costs. Hubei province, hardest-hit by the domestic Covid-19 outbreak that kicked off in its capital Wuhan in late 2019, also promised to help MSMEs with financing, and "double down on rectifying the issue of government agencies, public institutions and big companies deferring paying what they owe MSMEs." Multiple governments also mentioned boosting consumption. Coastal manufacturing hub Guangdong said it will look to expand consumption of automobiles, home appliances and information services, and build more parking lots, electric-car charging stations as well as infrastructure for new consumption modes, such as online sports and telemedicine. Considering that domestic consumption is contracting, some local governments may find it hard to fulfill their 2022 targets in this area, the Yuekai Securities report said. When making goals for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in 2022, local governments disavowed the aggressive measures that contributed to widespread power shortages in the second half of 2021. In line with the national top leaders' call to correct the overzealous "campaign-style" approach to cutting emissions, provincial-level governments including Hubei, Shaanxi and Qinghai said they aim to meet energy intensity targets set by Beijing for the 2021-2025 period within the time frame, which means no earlier than 2025. Hubei added that its goal for energy intensity — or energy use per unit of GDP — will be relatively flexible. Liaoning, which was hit hard by last year's power crunch, said it will promote carbon peaking in sectors including electricity, steelmaking and petrochemicals. The local government will "resolutely prevent 'one-size-fits-all' or campaign-style carbon reduction," its 2022 work report said. A coal shortage last year contributed to the power shortages. Instead of cutting down on fossil fuel production, coal-mining provinces Shanxi, Shandong and Gansu plan to stabilize or expand coal production capacity. Meanwhile, local governments have made plans for renewable energy and transforming energy-intensive industries. Hebei said it plans to actively develop wind, solar and hydrogen energy. The Ningxia Hui autonomous region said it will guide companies to transform themselves with energy-saving and carbon-reducing technology, and curb the "blind development" of energy-intensive and high-emission projects. Deepening reform and opening-up, which involves different tasks for different local authorities, is another key phrase in this year's local government work reports. For Hainan, it means continuing to build its free trade port, an effort that includes creating new regulations for cargo entering and exiting the island and promoting studies of tax reform. The tropical island province will also seize opportunities to expand its goods trade and develop services trade brought by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact, which came into force for some members at the start of this year. Guangdong, Sichuan, and Jiangsu echoed the central government's call to boost the market's role in pricing land, labor, capital, technology and data. Guangdong plans to build a unified market for land used for construction, and explore the establishment of a technology trade and service center in tech hub Shenzhen. Sichuan said it will explore the building of a digital-asset trading center that covers government data. Another priority is common prosperity, a term that rose up in the national policymaking agenda when President Xi Jinping highlighted it in an economic policy meeting in August last year. Over the past two years, the Covid-19 pandemic has slowed household income growth in China, which is seen as key to boosting consumer spending and stabilizing GDP growth. Some local governments vowed better wages this year. Guangdong said it will improve the mechanism for increasing labor incomes and wealth distribution. It also wants to grow its middle class and enrich farmers. Zhejiang said it will accelerate setting up a database to identify low- and middle-income groups and explore methods to increase their incomes. Core groups include recent university graduates, skilled workers, small and midsize business owners, migrant workers and low-income rural households.
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