Conférence de M. Jussi HANHIMÄKI, professeur et directeur du Département d'histoire et de politique internationales

Conférence de M. HUANG Yi, professeur associé, IHEID
«The Trump administration raised the stakes in a trade dispute with China by proposing a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods on 10 July 2018. These tariffs were in addition to $50 billion already officially imposed on China. The Ministry of Commerce of China immediately responded, warning of similar retaliation. But while tariffs can reduce competition from foreign firms at home, they can also raise the costs of imported inputs for domestic firms, leading domestic consumers and firms that depend heavily on foreign produced goods to suffer.
So, what are the costs of the trade war between the US and China? Are there any spillover effects to Europe, Japan, Korea and the rest of the world? This lunch briefing will examine the economic costs and the financial market responses to the Trump administration’s initial and subsequent tariffs on imports from China.»

Conférence du professeur Robert HOWSE

Conférence de M. Jean-Pierre CABESTAN, professeur au Département de science politique de l'Université baptiste de Hongkong.

"Une thèse communément admise voudrait que le développement économique spectaculaire de la Chine et l’expansion d’une classe moyenne qu’il entraîne favorisent tôt ou tard une libéralisation de son régime politique et une évolution plus ou moins douce vers la démocratie. Or, cette thèse semble fragile en regard du fonctionnement réel du système politique chinois et de ses rapports avec la société. De nombreuses raisons rendent beaucoup plus probable le maintien d’un régime autoritaire et modernisateur dirigé sans partage par le Parti communiste, la principale étant le large consensus des élites autour de ce projet. Cette probable évolution n’est pas sans poser un défi à Hongkong dont une grande partie de la société réclame plus d’autonomie politique et de démocratie. La Chine peut-elle soumettre Hongkong? Ou au contraire, Hongkong peut-elle influencer l’avenir politique de la Chine?"

Conférence par M. Peter PETRI, professeur, Brandeis University, Brandeis International Business School
"Powerful technological platforms — artificial intelligence, gene editing, robotics — are driving a new wave of global innovation, with China and the United States emerging as the “G2” in these and other areas of technology. The United States is ahead overall, but its technology investments and human resources will be soon exceeded by those in China. Still, we project that Chinese innovation will not catch up in some technologies for decades, making some sectors dependent on critical foreign inputs.
Political differences between China and the United States, some zero-sum aspects of technological competition, the role of the state in Chinese innovation, and China’s technological vulnerabilities have led the United States to pursue aggressive, and by past standards illegal, interventions in trade. Some decoupling of the technological relationship is underway. Yet technological disengagement is likely to be slower and harder than commonly expected. Third countries — accounting for 60 percent of world GDP— have large stakes in preventing extensive decoupling; China could retain their business by pursuing open economic policies and reforms.
In sharp contrast with recent trends, academic research argues for an “open innovation” regime that emphasizes vigorous flows of ideas, researchers, and products, in order to enhance the pace and utilization of innovation everywhere. Yet in the current political setting the open model can lead to technology leakages, creating commercial and national security risks. These issues dominate current policy discussions and generate strong headwinds against open policies.
The policy challenges for China and the world are to reduce the scope of current decoupling and to build foundations for more open policies in the future. This requires resuming, to the extent possible, rules-based trade in advanced products and technologies, while establishing safeguards—narrowly-defined controls on trade and investment — that limit national security risks. Technological cooperation in the long run will depend on renewed collaboration among leaders and better tools for managing risks."

Conférence de Jean-Pierre CABESTAN, professeur de sciences politiques à l'Université baptiste de Hongkong Auditorium Ivan Pictet, Maison de la paix, Genève

Conférence de M. HUANG Yi, professeur assistant, économie internationale, Chaire Pictet pour la finance et le développement China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than in the US and other major advanced economies. This briefing will examine how rising local government, corporate and foreign currency debt will impact China's long term economic growth.